BRITISH STUDY SUGGEST WAR WITH IRAN WOULD BECOME GREATER CONFLICT
WITH MANY OTHER NATIONS
FEB 13 2006
'10,000 would die' in A-plant attack on Iran Feb 13
Iran Attack: Turning America into a Straussian Totalitarian State Feb 13
A United States attack on Iran could
eventually lead to a lengthy confrontation involving many other countries in
the region, including Israel, a British think tank said in a report released
on Monday.
"A U.S. military attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure would be the start
of a protracted military confrontation that would probably involve Iraq,
Israel and Lebanon as well as the United States and Iran, with the possibility
of west Gulf States being involved as well," it said.
According to the Oxford Research Group report, thousands of military personnel
and hundreds of civilians would be killed if the U.S. launched an air strike
on Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear arms.
The report said any bombing of Iran
by U.S. forces, or by Israel, would have to be part of a surprise attack that
would inevitably catch many Iranians unprotected.
An attack could lead to the closure of the Gulf at the Straits of Hormuz and
would probably have a substantial impact on oil prices, as well as spurring
new attacks by Muslim radicals on Western interests, the report said.
"Military deaths in [the] first wave of attacks against Iran would be expected
to be in the thousands, especially with attacks on air bases and Revolutionary
Guard facilities," said the report by Paul Rogers of the University of
Bradford.
"Civilian deaths would be in the many hundreds at least," it said. "If the war
evolved into a wider conflict, primarily to pre-empt or counter Iranian
responses, the casualties would eventually be much higher."
Western states suspect Iran of secretly aiming to build a nuclear bomb. Tehran
says its nuclear facilities are intended to produce only electricity.
The U.S. and Israel have said they would prefer to solve the dispute through
diplomacy but have not ruled out military action.
The report said an attack by the U.S. or Israel on Iran would probably spur
Tehran to work as rapidly as possible towards developing a nuclear military
option.
It said U.S. forces, already tied down in Iraq, would have a limited number of
military options when dealing with Iran and would have to rely almost entirely
on the air force and navy.
Any attack would almost certainly unify Iran and bolster the government in
Tehran, and mean that any future U.S. relationship with Iran would have to be
based on violence, the report said.
A military response to the crisis would be a "particularly dangerous option
and should not be considered further," the report concluded.
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