TURKEY AND SYRIA LOOK TO BE PREPARING TO ENTER IRAQ
MAY 1 2008
TURKEY HAD TO BE WITH THEM FOR PROPHECY TO BE FULFILLED
Night Watch: rfn=KODORI GORGE - “Additional units of the Russian troops are coming to the area of the peacekeeping operation of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Collective Peacekeeping Force in the zone of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict.” Xinhua reports that was the de facto statement by the spokesman for the Russia Foreign Ministry, Vyacheslav Sedov, given to Itar-Tass on the increase in the number of Russian units now deployed in Abkhazia, the disputed territory between Georgia and the Black Sea.
The number of new Russian units may be a secret but their intention is definitely not which is why it is a misnomer, perfectly diplomatic, to refer to them as a peacekeeping unit.
Their mission is obviously offensive and to restore Moscow’s control over the resources between the Black and Caspian Sea which Russia nearly lost complete control over at the end of the Cold War in 1990 due to the enormous corruption at the highest levels of post-Soviet society and government.
At one time, 1997, the year after Russia lost the first Chechen war, a Russian official admitted if the armed forces continued to deteriorate then Moscow would lose control over the area from the Urals to the Far East, two-thirds of the country.
It would put at extreme risk the West’s access to raw materials which is why Berlin handpicked Vladimir Putin to replace Boris Yeltsin in 1999 and lead the military reforms that are now enabling Moscow to restore its control knowing it will lead to major fighting at any moment.
rfn=Tkvarcheli - The Georgian government in Tbilisi is under no illusion as to the nature of these units intention which is why France24/AFP have quoted David Bakradze, the Special Representative to Georgia President Mikhail Saakashvili, that the Russian move was, “The beginning of full scale military aggression.” The units have taken up position in the Tkvarcheli district of Abkhazia which is next to the Kodori Gorge 160 miles northwest of Tbilisi.
The Kodori has been divided between Abkhazian and Georgian units for two years when the military standoff began and it was only a question of time before Moscow created events that would provide Russia’s reason to attack. They are establishing a camp complete with canteen and communication facilities and Moscow has already stated Russia intends to construct 15 more observation posts.
NATO has issued its usual form response, going through the motions of warning Russia, when in reality every NATO nation requires access to raw materials from the region and Brussels realizes Ankara-Teheran have increased their relations with Tbilisi in the hope Moscow will not be able to restore its economic regime.
Turkey’s support of Georgia, an extension of its support of Islamic groups that fought Russia in the North Caucasus since 1994 is one of the reasons for NATO’s weak position since Turkey is a NATO member.
But what has really undermined NATO was its own suspicious strategic thinking which ignored the war in the strategic Caucasus and instead insisted on war with Serbia which NATO began attacking 1994 a war that is going to resume over Kosovo.
Brussels’ own warped decision making is the main reason there has never been and will be no real strategic cooperation with Russia. Brussels will continue to diminish in importance for the duration of the war. NATO role is limited to having its aircraft conduct some joint maneuvers with Russian bombers.
rfn=Teheran - At Washington’s insistence an Iraqi delegation, led by the Deputy Speaker of Parliament Sheikh Khalid al-Attiya, has just arrived in Teheran as part of Washington effort to set the stage to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities and bases of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Quds Force that have been training and supplying the Shia militias. Swissinfo/Reuters quoted Sami al-Askari, a senior lawmaker and confidant of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, “The UIA (Unified Iraqi Alliance) has decided to send a delegation to press the Iranian government to stop financing and supporting the armed groups.”
The UIA is the political bloc of the Prime Minister and there is no word on who they will meet but I suspect it will be a low level official in Iran’s Foreign Ministry who will of course deny an Iranian involvement in Iraq, a denial Teheran has maintained for five years. On Wednesday a U. S. official travelling with U. S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates outlined the procedure, “The Iraqis wish to first show what they have to the Iranian government before they show the world.” That could take place this weekend after Teheran’s quick and immediate rejection of the delegation.
But also Wednesday Prime Minister al-Maliki made the curious statement, “I am not Iran’s man in Iraq", even though he ordered the Iraq Army to attack Basra and gave almost no notice to Washington which is exactly why he is Iran’s man in Iraq. He and Teheran knew the Iraq Army would not be successful since it is infiltrated by members of the Mahdi Army, headed by another of Iran’s man in Iraq, Muqtada al-Sadr.
The offensive was meant to draw UK/US forces into the conflict as London-Washington were preparing to withdraw this year and it has placed British-U. S. units in Basra right near the Iranian border within easy range of the cruise missiles Iran will launch when the war becomes more direct. When attacks against the occupation began five years ago Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei observed the U. S. was like a wolf caught in a trap. Teheran wants the trap to continue and does not want to see these UK/US forces on other fronts.
4/30/2008
Night Watch: rfn=PERSIAN GULF - “What the Iranians are doing is killing American service men and women inside Iraq.” That was the statement made by U. S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates as CBS News reports a second aircraft carrier arrived in the Persian Gulf. Recently it had been reported two more carriers had left the South China Sea enroute to the Gulf, though publicly Secretary Gates still says no attack is imminent.
The Pentagon has ordered military commanders to prepare new options for an attack on Iran, specifically the headquarters of Iran’s Quds Force, the branch of the military which controls the support of Shia militias and Sunni groups attacking the occupation and nuclear facilites of Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
It is even being reported the State Department is drafting an ultimatum to Iran but the first step will be Washington having Iraq Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki confront Iran later this week with evidence of Teheran’s support of Islamic militias attacking U. S. forces. If that does not change Teheran’s policy then the State Department will demand Iran cease its support or else, the war becomes direct.
rfn=Teheran -Iran has no intention of changing its policy of supporting any Islamic group attacking the UK/US and in fact Iran’s response will be to have the fighting increase to even more than its current level. Iran believes it is ready for war with the U. S. otherwise the fighting in Baghdad and Iraq’s south would not have been so intense as it has been for the last month, including the almost daily bombardment of the International Green Zone where embassies and government offices are located.
With the Pentagon’s attack on Iran then Teheran will probably launch missiles from Iran at the UK/US bases in Iraq and Persian Gulf. IRNA reports on Wednesday the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Air Force, Brigadier General Hossein Salami stated, “The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has become a reliable, invincible and impenetrable body to defend the country against any threats.”
He then said though the U. S. believes it has the most powerful military empire in the world it has yet to achieve any of its goals. Washington’s most glaring failure is its inablity to secure Iraq and again the main reason for that failure is Teheran’s continued support of armed groups attacking it. The recent harassment of U. S. ships in the Gulf is another indication Iran believes it is ready. Teheran knew Washington would have no other choice but to attack.
rfn=Kirkuk - As the U. S. concentrates on Baghdad and Iraq’s south there are indications serious fighting is about to erupt in Iraq’s north near the Syrian-Turkish border in the Kurdish regions around Mosul and Kirkuk over control of the area’s vast amount of oil reserves.
Huda al-Husseini, Lebanese columnist with Asharq al-Awsat writes, “So far, the battle of Basra remains unresolved, same as the battle in Baghdad’s Sadr City and while all attention is focused on the south another civil war is threatening to erupt in the north. She writes the Kurds are actively working to annex al Tamim, the capital of which is Kirkuk and is home to oil reserves that could reach up to 15 billion barrels.”
The Kurds are conducting a “Kurdization” program by controlling most of the municipal councils, most jobs, including police posts at the expense of Arabs and Turkmen. And that is why every Shia-Sunni political party in Baghdad, including Muqtada al-Sadr, is opposed to Kurdish control over this region.
The U. S. military is still trying to work with the Kurds by erecting mud and earth walls around the city in a desperate attempt to end the arms smuggling, principally by armed Sunni Sahwa forces that have been established no doubt with the assistance of Damascus-Anakara-Teheran, governments that do not wish to see a powerful, independent Kurdistan and at the same time want to increase the crossfire U. S.-British forces are already engulfed by.
Syria claims it should control Mosul and Turkey claims Kirkuk and I suspect both governments will enter the war this year to enforce those claims as London-Washington are not only increasingly trapped in Iraq but at war with Iran. Turkey’s current operations against Kurdish forces in Iraq and southeast Turkey are probably nothing more than preparation for its entry.
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