MASSIVE X CLASS SOLAR FLARE HAPPENS AS THE SOLAR FLARES BUILDING FAST AND FURIOUS

MAR 9 2011

ORIGINAL ARTICLE


When Russia is ready to attack we will see God's Fury raise in his face

Ezekiel 38:18  And it shall come to pass at the same time when Gog shall come against the land of Israel, saith the Lord GOD, that my fury shall come up in my face.


 

X1.5 Solar Flare - Just as active Sunspot 1165 has disappeared onto the western limb, The second largest Solar Flare of Cycle 24 thurs far has taken place around huge Sunspot 1166. The X1.5 event event peaked at 23:16 UTC Wednesday evening and caused a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout on the sunlit side of earth. More to follow.

 

Solar Update / Aurora Watch - Sunspot 1165 has rotated onto the western limb and 1164 will soon follow, however there will remain the chance for strong solar flares around Sunspot 1166 which is located in the center of the visible solar disk. It does have a BETA-Gamma Delta configuration and is a very large cluster.

An aurora watch remains in effect over the next 24 hours with possible minor storming at high latitudes due to one of the CME's that took place over the past several days. Earth has been dodging bullets the past week, however its just a matter of time before we get lucky and sustain a direct hit.

 


 

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Mar 09 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Two M1 x-ray flares were observed from Region 1166 (N09W12) which was an Ekc spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification.  The area of this region and the number of spots increased over the last 24 hours.  Region 1169 (N20E18) also grew in area and number of spots over the past 24 hours, ending the period as an Esc type spot group with a Beta-Gamma magnetic classification.  The remaining regions were either small and magnetically simple (Region 1170) or decaying (Region 1164) and rotating off the visible disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain moderate for day 1 (10 March) with a chance for M-class activity from Region 1166 or Region 1169.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained above the 10 pfu threshold throughout the past 24 hours.  Solar wind speed measured at the STEREO-A spacecraft jumped from approximately 650 km/s to 870 km/s near 09/0700Z.  This jump was accompanied by southward Bz to -20nT.  These observations were consistent with a shock passage from the CME that originated on 07/2012Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active, with isolated minor storm
periods possible at high latitudes on day one (10 March), and primarily unsettled conditions on days two and three (11-12 March).  The CME from 07 March is expected to arrive mid-day on 10 March, leading to the elevated activity.

III.  Event Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    50/40/30
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     75/50/20
PCAF       yellow
 

 

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